Maybe not. But according to research and investment firm The ArcView Group, if we see nationwide legalization, mail order marijuana will be bigger than the organic food industry. All states in the union or the federal government would have to allow recreational marijuana to get to that point, an industry said to be worth $36.8 billion all told. To date, cannabis is one of the nation’s leading growth industries, worth $2.7 billion in 2014, up from $1.5 billion the year before. Hundreds of operations both medical and recreational were surveyed in order to reach this conclusion. This included growers, retailers, and ancillary businesses. It took seven months of surveying and data gathering from nonprofit, private, and state government sources to produce the report.
ArcView Group CEO Troy Dayton wrote in his executive summary, in this third annual report labeled, “The State of Legal Marijuana Markets” that “In the last year, the rise of the cannabis industry went from an interesting cocktail conversation to being taken seriously as the fastest growing industry in America.” Today he says there is no serious businessperson or firm paying attention who is not considering the possibilities inherent in the industry.
The report also cited a remarkable number, a projected 32% growth rate within the market this year. This puts marijuana at number one on the list of fast-growing industries today. ArcView predicts that within the next five years, two more states will adopt medical marijuana laws and an impressive 14 more will allow recreational marijuana, much like Colorado and Washington State.
In the next two years, 10 states will consider whether or not to allow adult-use via ballot initiatives. The analysis also states that all state-sanctioned marijuana markets by 2019 taken together will be worth nearly $11 billion a year. The largest market overall today is California at $1.3 billion annually. Arizona is expected to become the fastest-growing state with a projected market of $155 million this year, up from $120 million last year. 1.5 billion consumers purchased marijuana either at a rec shop or dispensary in 2014. These purchases added up to $370 million in marijuana and related products. Alaska and Oregon are expected to add another $275 million this year. The possibility for profit along with a shift in public opinion may see rec shops bloom across this country in just a few short years.